Reducing the Fog of War

“Limited experience and education can lead to limited expertise.”

I believe the current Secretary of Defense used a phrase last week that requires clarification. The comment was,

“The thing was on fire. It was exploded in fire and smoke. You can’t see it,” he said, adding: “This is called the fog of war.”

The last time I checked, only Congress can declare war, but that’s another story.

Hearing and reading that statement might cause one to believe that the phrase ‘fog of war’ refers to a physically obscured view of the battlefield. My interpretation of these remarks was from the descriptors, fire, smoke, and “You can’t see.” A better description of fire, smoke, and the inability to see is ‘war’ rather than the fog of war.

The Fog of War Defined

The Prussian military strategist Carl Von Clausewitz wrote in his book, On War (1832), that,

“War is the providence of uncertainty; three-quarters of those things upon which action in War must be calculated, are hidden more or less in the clouds of great uncertainty.” (Colonel JJ Graham translation)

“War is the realm of uncertainty; three-quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.”  (Michael Howard and Peter Paret translation)

A shorter explanation for fog of war is uncertainty in situational awareness.

‘War’ and ‘uncertainty’ were underlined because they are indeed linked.

Meteorological instruments reduce fog-related uncertainty by quantifying weather factors. For the military, C4ISR – Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance- diminishes the fog of war. Integrating these systems creates a COP (Common Operating Picture). The COP depends on the portion of the battlefield you are on and funnels up to the strategic level to create a single, contiguous picture that allows strategic leaders to make informed decisions.

The Business Aspects of COP and the Future

Corporations and businesses should also attempt to develop COPs, but unfortunately, most things remain the same: everything is in functional-area silos. Silos only contribute to creating further confusion, miscommunication, ignored indicators and warnings of impending calamity, missed opportunities, and underestimated threats. Why does this matter?

A more contemporary perspective on the changing battlefield was provided by former Army Chief of Staff and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, GEN Mark Milley,

“On the future battlefield, if you stay in one place longer than two or three hours, you will be dead… With enemy drones and sensors constantly on the hunt for targets, there won’t even be time for four hours’ unbroken sleep.”

In addition to war creating a VUCA environment, the battlefield is quite fluid.

The Business Battlefield Now and in the Future

When you add digitization and AI into the equation, the fog of war in business aligns with GEN Milley’s perspectives. Gone are the days when a corporation or industry can rest on its laurels of competitive advantages. Your business may become obsolete in the blink of an eye as new products are introduced and techniques are deployed at lightning speed. Now, back to the main topic.

With the vast resources of the US military at our disposal, was it too difficult to deploy the tools we designed to reduce the ‘fog of war?’ We have Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) that can count the hairs on a gnat’s behind. Still, we couldn’t use that technology to accurately assess the condition of two individuals clinging to the remains of a destroyed boat?

I think the fog is in the strategic thinking of those charged with reducing the uncertainty.

What tools have you developed to reduce the fog of war in your business?

Are you operating in a VUCA environment?

How are you handling the fluidity of changes in your industry?

References:

Carl Von Clausewitz, On War, Book 1, Chapter III: The Genius of War.

Carl von Clausewitz, Vom Kriege, Book 1, Chapter 3.

Freedberg, Sydney J. Jr. (5 October 2016). “Miserable, Disobedient & Victorious: Gen. Milley’s Future US Soldier”. breakingdefense.com.